He sold for $150 million to bet BIG on this one trend…
Happy Saturday.
I hope you’re all making lots of money from the New Year’s rush.
Just a friendly reminder: don’t spend it all on 70lb dumbbells because taxes are due in three months.
Is CrossFit Dying?
Over the past few weeks, CrossFit Youtubers Andrew Hiller, Craig Richey, and Nate Edwardson posted videos asking, “Is CrossFit Dying?”
Well, your boy has the answer & soon, you will too.
Every year, I buy a mailing list of all the CrossFit affiliates. The data is scraped from the CrossFit Affiliate Map and then verified via Google Earth.
Here’s what the numbers say:
US AFFILIATES
- 2020: 5,638
- 2021: 5,060
- 2022: 4,750
GLOBAL AFFILIATES
- 2020: 12,587
- 2021: 11,431
- 2022: 11,480
So in the last two years, there has been a net loss of 1,107 global affiliates, but 899 of those were US affiliates.
Year over year, global numbers look strong, but CrossFit reduced the affiliation fee by $750 in certain international markets at the end of 2021.
Seeing the US number bleed away is concerning.
I’ve spoken at a few fitness conferences abroad, and in my opinion, US affiliates drive the brand’s culture.
A quick Google Trends search shows that the US population gets less interested in the brand every year.
Between the affiliate data, the executive departures, and the trend data, three things are clear to me:
- CrossFit is dying in the US, which matters more than global affiliate growth
2. CrossFit’s new owners, Berkshire Partners, are unhappy with how things are going
3.
To be clear: I don’t think CrossFit will die. The modality is effective, and there is a die-hard fan base. The most likely outcome is that CrossFit’s popularity continues to decline for a few more years and then eventually plateaus.
The best gym owner ever?
This week on Gym World Worldwide, we discuss the Lionel Messi of gym ownership.
With over 140 locations, Jamie Weeks is the largest OrangeTheory franchisee. He sold his studios to private equity TWICE for around $150M.
Last year he bet big on a recovery franchise called SweatHouz. They’ve already sold 75+ licenses and same-store sales are growing by 5% monthly.
Watch the episode to learn how you can profit from the next big trend in fitness.
Until next week,
John
